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This can be from a numerical simulation of the development on the reservoir eventually. Nevertheless, Saudi Aramco historical past-matches their reservoir types with intensive quantities of very well log details, so it is most likely a fairly precise photo on the historical past of the sector. The variable getting plotted is water saturation - which is the percentage of the pore quantity while in the rock that is definitely stuffed with water, instead of oil. In Ghawar, the reservoir pressure has been managed these that there is no gasoline cap (the fuel is dissolved while in the oil), and so the pores are crammed with oil, drinking water, or a mix.

As an example, the tutorial I referenced previously demonstrates this photograph for a standard fractional flow curve:

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Now, we only have ample knowledge for making a convincing scenario for when this could come about in North 'Ain Dar, which represented only 500kbpd of generation in 2004. On the other hand, it can be not less than plausible, nevertheless not demonstrated, the exact same factor could be going on in somewhere around the exact same timeframe in the whole 'Ain Dar/Shedgum area.

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